…The main success of nuclear blackmail lay in the fact that NATO had to take into account not only Russia’s actual capabilities, but also the unpredictable consequences of Moscow deciding to cross yet another “red line.”

In such circumstances, there was no need to be certain that the threat would be carried out. It was enough to doubt that the Kremlin was bluffing.

But once nuclear blackmail proves so effective, the temptation to keep raising the stakes becomes hard to resist. Every concession encourages the next threat.

This is an especially dangerous game because, if a concession cannot be extracted, the Kremlin faces a direct temptation to prove that its threats are more than words…

There Will Come Bomb Rains